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Heavy Rain, A Few Thunderstorms & Gusty Winds 10 am-4 pm Today Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of Today: A strong frontal boundary will push through Southern New England late this morning through this afternoon. Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will affect Western and Central Mass through mid-morning. The main show, however, is expected to begin late this morning and continue through this afternoon. This will consist of a roughly 3 to 4 hour period of heavy rain, gusty winds and a few thunderstorms. More details on all of this below - Heavy Rain: Heavy rain with a few embedded thunderstorms will push into Western Mass by about 10 am or so this morning and then overspread Central Mass by about 11 am or so this morning. The heavy rainfall is then expected to affect any one location across Western and Central Mass for about 3 to 4 hours or so. The heavy rainfall is expected to come to an end from west to east starting across Western Mass by about 2 pm or so this afternoon and across Central Mass around 3 pm or so this afternoon. Total rainfall amounts of around 1 inch can expected across the entire area, but localized amounts of up to 2 inches are possible in any heavy thunderstorm activity. While significant flooding is not expected, some poor drainage and street flooding is possible from the heavy rainfall. Gusty Winds: It will be windy throughout much of today across Western and Central Mass. South to southeast winds are expected to gust up to 30 to 40 mph at times, especially from late this morning through this afternoon. Given that there are still a lot of leaves on the trees, which is highly unusual for mid November, there is the possibility for isolated downed trees and possible isolated power outages. Very Low Risk For A Severe Thunderstorm Or Two: Even though any embedded thunderstorms will remain non-severe, there is the very slight possibility for maybe one or two thunderstorms to be severe. The main threat would be strong wind gusts with areas south of the Mass Pike at greatest risk, even though the overall severe weather threat is very low. Temperatures: Temperatures this morning will rise quickly to near 65 Degrees, but will fall into the 50s by later this afternoon once that frontal boundary moves to our east. Tonight: Much drier air will push into the area tonight with cloudy skies this evening giving way to clearing skies after midnight. Low temperatures tonight will be between 34 and 39 Degrees. Saturday & Saturday Night: A very changeable 24 hours of weather is expected across Western and Central Mass between Saturday morning and Sunday morning. We will begin Saturday with a weak high pressure system that’ll provide a partly sunny morning across the entire area. That high pressure system will push to the east during the afternoon with an area of low pressure expected to strengthen and move across New York State into Southern New England during the afternoon hours of Saturday. This means that an area of heavy rain with a thunderstorm or two will first affect Western Mass between 3 and 5 pm in the afternoon and then affect Central Mass between about 4 and 6 pm Saturday afternoon. Once that front moves through, it’s expected to become windy by late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening with west to northwest winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph at times. If that wasn’t enough, a few snow showers are possible Saturday evening across the Berkshires and the western Hilltowns of Western Mass and also possibly the northern Worcester Hills as colder air rapidly moves into the area. High temperatures Saturday will be near 60 Degrees with temperatures falling quickly through the 50s and into the 40s by late afternoon. Low temperatures Saturday night will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Sunday: A partly sunny day is expected on Sunday with high temperatures between 45 and 50 Degrees. Sunday Night & Monday: Yet another frontal system will move across the area later Sunday night into Monday. In addition to this, it’s possible that an area of low pressure may form along this front well east of New England on Monday. This all means that some scattered rain showers are expected from late Sunday night through Monday morning. In addition to this, some snow shower activity is possible with this front in the Berkshires, the Hilltowns of Western Mass and across the Worcester Hills late Sunday night and Monday morning. Low temperatures Sunday night will be near 35 Degrees. High temperatures Monday will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. Tuesday Through Wednesday: An area of high pressure is expected to move over the area during Tuesday and Wednesday. This means that lots of sunshine is expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be near 45 Degrees. High temperatures Wednesday will be between 50 and 55 Degrees. Thursday Through Friday: It appears that a frontal system will push through the area by Thursday night. This means that most of Thursday should be dry with increasing clouds expected. Some scattered showers are expected during late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. The forecast for next Friday currently looks dry, however, the European weather model seems to forecast that an area of low pressure could move across the area bringing rain Friday afternoon and Friday night. I think that the European weather model may be the odd man out as none of the other weather guidance shows this scenario. So, for now I’m forecasting that next Friday will be partly sunny with high temperatures near 50 Degrees.

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