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Extensive & Potentially Severe Flash Flooding Tonight Into Thursday Across Western & Central Mass

Summary: It looks very likely that Western and Central Mass will see rare, high impact extensive flooding that leads to significant and potentially severe impacts across the area tonight into Thursday. I cannot stress enough how dangerous this setup is for the entire area. Widespread rain totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected with the possibility of isolated amounts of 7 to 8 inches with a majority of the rain occurring between about 8 pm this evening and 6 am Thursday morning. Details: It looks very likely that we are going to see rare high impact flooding across Western and Central Mass tonight into Thursday. The remnants of Ida are expected to move northeastward into southern New England. Extreme amounts of moisture combined with strong dynamics in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will lead to a rather rare heavy rain and flood event across the entire area. Light to moderate rain is expected to continue throughout the rest of the day today. Widespread heavy to very rain is expected to overspread Western Mass by about 8-9 pm this evening and then begin across Central Mass by about 9-11 pm tonight. Heavy to very heavy rain is then expected to continue through the rest of the night tonight before coming to an end first across Western Mass by 5-7 am Thursday morning and then across Central Mass by 7 to 9 am Thursday morning. The sun is then likely to begin peeking through the clouds by Thursday afternoon. Forecast Rainfall Totals: - 2 to 3 inches along and north of Route 2, including Deerfield, Orange, Fitchburg and Leominster. - 3 to 5 inches of rain south of Route 2, but along and north of the Mass Pike. This includes, but is not limited to Amherst, Holyoke, Ludlow, Ware, Brookfield, Paxton, Holden, Spencer, Worcester and Auburn. - 4 to 6 inches of rain south of the Mass Pike. This includes, but is not limited to Springfield, Chicopee, Monson, Brimfield, Sturbridge, Oxford, Northbridge, Uxbridge. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 7 to 8 inches are a possibility in areas that see repeated bands of extremely heavy rain tonight. This is the type of setup we oftentimes see during the winter where these bands of extremely heavy snow setup, but instead this is going to be rain and it’s going to rain extremely hard tonight. Flood Threat: The greatest threat for very high impact extensive flooding is expected occur near and south of the Mass Pike and this does include both the metro Springfield and metro Worcester areas. Very significant to severe urban and small stream flash flooding is likely tonight into Thursday morning. In addition, significant river flooding is also going to be a huge concern as well. In addition, significant to major basement flooding and the potential for a few road washouts are also possible. This is a situation that I’m watching extremely closely and I’ll have updates for you as needed, especially if flash flood warnings start to be sent out by the National Weather Service. Use extreme caution tonight if you are traveling tonight as road washouts and extreme flooding of roads are likely. If you encounter a flooded road, don’t proceed any further and find an alternate route.

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