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A Windswept Heavy Rain Is Expected On Thursday Night Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon: An area of high pressure system will continue to control the weather this afternoon with plenty of sunshine expected. Temperatures will be between 70 and 75 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Tonight: Clouds are expected to be on the increase this evening with cloudy skies expected after midnight tonight. This is all due to a strong cold front that’ll be pushing into the eastern Great Lakes by late tonight. Finally, some isolated shower activity is expected towards sunrise Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be between 50 and 55 Degrees. Winds will be South at 10 to 20 mph. Thursday: That strong cold front is expected to continue pushing eastward across New York State throughout the day Thursday. Skies throughout the day Thursday will be cloudy. Very isolated shower activity is expected during the morning with increasing shower activity expected during the afternoon, so that by late afternoon, there will be widespread showers across the entire area. It should be noted that the really heavy rainfall will hold off until Thursday night. High temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Winds will be South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds Expected Thursday Night Through Friday Morning: A strong cold front is expected to sweep across Southern New England during Thursday night and Friday morning bringing with it heavy rain and gusty winds. So, let’s break it down by each threat: Heavy Rainfall Potential For Thursday Night Into Friday Morning: Pretty widespread showers with embedded areas of heavy rain is expected during Thursday evening. Later Thursday night, it still looks like a line of very heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will move from west to east across Western and Central Mass. Current indications are that this line of heavy rain with thunderstorms will move across Western Mass between about 1 am and 5 am or so and then across Central Mass between about 3-4 am and 7-8 am or so. Shower activity is then expected to persist through mid-morning, especially across Central Mass before it all comes to an end by late morning or so. It still looks like rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely with locally higher amounts possible. This heavy rainfall is likely to lead to street and highway flooding, especially in areas where fallen leaves are clogging storm drains. Additionally, the combination of wet roads and wet fallen leaves on roads is likely to lead to slippery road conditions throughout Thursday night into Friday morning. Gusty Winds Expected On Thursday Night: A tight pressure gradient between the incoming frontal boundary and a high pressure ridge to the east will lead to some gusty southerly winds throughout Thursday night. The winds at just 2000 feet above ground level are still expected to be blowing at between 45 and 65 mph throughout Thursday night. The big question continues to be whether any of the heavy rain or thunderstorm activity will be able to bring these strong winds down to the surface or not. At this point, I think that we’re probably looking at South winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 to 45 mph at times throughout Thursday night. Again, an isolated wind gust of 50 to 60 mph is not out of the question with any heavy shower or thunderstorm activity during Thursday night. These gusty southerly winds will likely strip at least some of the leaves from the trees during Thursday night. As I already mentioned, the combination of heavy rain and fallen leaves on roads will lead to slippery road conditions throughout Thursday night and Friday morning. Thunderstorm Risk During Thursday Night & Early Friday Morning: There is the possibility for some embedded thunderstorms throughout Thursday night into early Friday with both the shower activity out ahead of the cold front and also with the line of heavy rain that is expected to move through late Thursday night through sunrise Friday morning. The question is whether any of this thunderstorm activity will be strong to severe or not. All indications, at this time, are that the area of potential severe weather with this front may be confined just to our south from southeastern New York State into the Mid-Atlantic region. That said, if we do see a line of thunderstorms form with the cold front, those thunderstorms may be able to tap into the stronger winds aloft and produce some 50-70 mph wind gusts as they move through between about 1 am and 5 am Friday morning across Western Mass and between about 3-4 am and 7-8 am Friday morning across Central Mass. At this point though, any strong or severe weather looks to be extremely isolated. Once the showers end late Friday morning, we should see some gradual, but slow clearing during Friday afternoon. Low temperatures Thursday night will be between 60 and 65 Degrees. High temperatures Friday will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. This Weekend: An area of high pressure will control the weather for Saturday with a mixture of sunshine and clouds expected. High temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees. A weak frontal boundary looks to cross the region during Sunday. This means that cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with some isolated showers possible during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees. Weather Outlook For Monday Through Wednesday Of Next Week: Some much cooler weather is expected for the first half of next week with temperatures that are likely to be below average for this time of year. In addition, the overall weather for the first half of next week looks unsettled as an upper level trough of low pressure sits over the northeastern United States. Scattered showers are expected for Monday with high temperatures between 55 and 60 Degrees. Showers are likely to continue throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be near 55 Degrees. High temperatures Wednesday will be near 50 Degrees. One thing we’re going to have to keep an eye on is for the possibility of some snow flakes to mix in with the scattered rain showers on both Monday night and Tuesday night. While accumulating snow is not expected, don’t be surprised to see a little bit of snow in the air at times on both nights.

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