A strong low pressure system and its robust cold front is pushing to the east as of early this afternoon. This weather system will bring with it several hours late this afternoon through this evening of heavy rain with flooding, windy to very windy conditions which could lead to some downed trees and power outages and maybe even a few thunderstorms.
Heavy Rain With A Flooding Threat: Radar imagery as of early this afternoon showed scattered showers with locally heavy rainfall affecting all of Central Mass. Across Western Mass, an area of steadier rain that is moderate to heavy in intensity is pushing its way eastward from the Berkshires and towards the Connecticut River Valley.
Rain, which will be heavy to very heavy at times, will continue overspreading the rest of Western Mass by 3 pm. Across Central Mass, steady rain, which will be heavy to very heavy at times, will begin between 3 and 4 pm.
Heavy to very heavy rain is then expected to continue across all of Western and Central Mass through the late afternoon hours and all of this evening.
The heavy to very heavy rain is likely to produce extensive ponding of water on roads and highways. Additionally, poor drainage flooding is expected from the heavy to very heavy rain. Also, the heavy rain will combine with extensive snow melt from northern New England to lead to the big rivers to rise to near flood stage by tonight into Thursday. The smaller rivers, streams and brooks across the region are also expected to reach near flood stage across much of the area.
The rain is expected to end first across Western Mass between 11 pm and midnight and then across Central Mass between midnight and 1 am tonight.
Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are still expected across the entire area. Isolated rainfall totals of up to 4 inches are still possible.
Windy To Very Windy Conditions Expected Late This Afternoon Into This Evening: Several hours of windy to very windy conditions are expected just ahead of the cold front.
These windy to very windy conditions are expected from about 3 pm this afternoon until about 9 pm this evening.
Between 3 pm and 9 pm, I think that we’re looking at south winds gusting up to 30-40 mph across Western Mass and across the northern parts of Worcester County. Across central parts of Worcester County that are north of the Mass Pike, south winds are expected to gust up to 35-45 mph. For areas near and especially south of the Mass Pike, south winds are expected to gust up to 40-60 mph at times between 3 pm and 9 pm.
These wind gusts will need to be watched though as any embedded thunderstorms could produce some 60-plus mph wind gusts, especially for areas south of the Mass Pike.
The combination of the heavy rain and windy conditions will likely lead to the potential for some downed trees and some power outages over the next several hours.
Black Ice Threat: Once that front moves through, temperatures are expected to begin tumbling downwards after midnight tonight reaching the low to mid 30s by 3-4 am Thursday morning. Temperatures are then expected to remain in the low to mid 30s right through the Thursday morning commute.
Because of this, there is likelihood of icy conditions to develop starting as soon as 3 am Thursday morning as moisture from the rainfall begins to freeze up.
This means that you need to be aware that any remaining water or moisture on roads, parking lots, driveways, stairs and decks are likely to freeze up from about 3 am Thursday morning right through the Thursday morning commute leading to the threat for black ice and slick conditions.
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