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A Sloppy Long-Duration Winter Storm Expected From Late Thursday Night Through Friday Into Saturday

For Tonight Through Wednesday: Even though an area of high pressure will try to control the weather tonight and Wednesday, a couple of upper level troughs of low pressure will rotate through the region. The first one moves through late tonight with the second one moving through late Wednesday. Tonight will feature clear skies with low temperatures between 15 and 20 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 10 to 20 mph before midnight and Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph as that first trough of low pressure moves through. Wednesday looks to be a sunny day with high temperatures near 35 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Wednesday Night Through Thursday: Wednesday night is expected to feature clear to partly cloudy skies with low temperatures near 25 Degrees. Winds will be North at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph before midnight and North at 5 to 10 mph after midnight. It appears that Thursday will start out partly sunny with skies becoming cloudy during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph. A Long-Duration Sloppy Winter Storm Is Expected Beginning Late Thursday Night & Continuing Through Friday Into Saturday: An area of low pressure is expected to take shape near the Mid-Atlantic coast during Thursday evening and then head northeastward passing near the south coast of New England by Friday night. From there it looks as if this storm system will track towards Atlantic Canada during the day on Saturday. A blocking high pressure system over eastern Canada is likely to slow down the progression of the low pressure system. Because of this, the wintry precipitation with this storm system is expected to last from late Thursday night until sometime on Saturday. The big question becomes what types of wintry precipitation will there be during the storm. Will it be all snow or will it end up being a messy, sloppy mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and even rain? I think the answer to this lies with how quickly will the coastal storm system develop and will it be able to pull down sufficient cold air to keep everything frozen in terms of precipitation type. Even though the weather forecast guidance is suggesting that milder air will work into the region, so that precipitation will change to rain as far north as Route 2, I think this could be incorrect. The reason why is because that big high pressure system over eastern Canada should be able to push cold air southward into our area during the storm. This is something that the weather forecast guidance is not very good at forecasting as they tend to push the cold air out of the way too quickly. Cold air is very dense and is usually very difficult to scour out. So, be careful when looking at that weather app on your phone because it’s basing its forecast off of a weather forecast model of a warmer solution and thus, it’s probably forecasting rain for Friday. My Forecast For This Storm Is For The Following: Snow is likely to overspread the entire area during the late night hours of Thursday night and it’ll be snowing everywhere during Friday morning’s commute. The forecast then becomes a lot more complicated during Friday and Friday night as it’s still pretty uncertain as to how far northward the changeover line from snow to ice to rain will push. For Central Mass – Snow looks to change to freezing rain and sleet by or before midday across areas near and south of the Mass Pike with areas north of the Mass Pike staying as all snow through midday. During Friday afternoon, the changeover line from snow to ice and even rain may push as far north as Route 2 by mid to late afternoon with areas near and north of Route 2 remaining as all snow. A change back to snow looks possible across all areas of Central Mass during the overnight hours of Friday night with the snow persisting into the day on Saturday before ending late Saturday. As for snow amounts, the area that looks to probably see more than 8 inches of snow accumulations are near and north of Route 2. South of Route 2, something like 1 to 2 inches or 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation is possible late Thursday night and Friday morning before the mixture of freezing rain, sleet and rain makes things a mess Friday afternoon and Friday night. An additional 1 to 2 inches or even 2 to 4 more inches of snow is possible late Friday night and Saturday when the precipitation changes back to snow. For Western Mass – I do think that snow will change to freezing rain, sleet and even rain across the valley floor of the I-91 corridor by late morning with precipitation staying as all snow in the Hilltowns and across the Berkshires. During Friday afternoon, a cold rain that mixes with sleet looks possible in the Pioneer Valley with snow continuing in the Berkshires and the western Hilltowns. Over the eastern Hilltowns, a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain looks possible. A change back to snow looks possible across all areas of Central Mass during the overnight hours of Friday night with the snow persisting into the day on Saturday before ending late Saturday. As for snow amounts, the western Hilltowns and the Berkshires have the potential to see one foot or more of snow accumulation due to the precipitation staying as all snow and orographic processes enhancing the snow rates. The Pioneer Valley may end up seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation Thursday night into Friday morning before things change to rain during Friday afternoon into Friday night. An additional 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation is possible later Friday night and Saturday when the precipitation changes back to snow. I want to reiterate once again that the uncertainty with the exact track of this storm is still pretty high and thus more changes in the forecast over the next couple of days or so are likely. Are You An Owner Of A Snow Removal Or Property Management Company, A Town Administrator Looking For Specific Weather Forecasts & Updates Just For Your Town Or Someone That Desperately Relies On Specific Weather Information & Updates: Consider hiring me as your weather consultant. My clients receive specific weather forecasts and updates for upcoming storms tailored to what they need. In addition, my clients receive weather updates and longer range weather guidance that I don’t publish on this site. This information includes outlooks that go out weeks in advance helping them plan their schedules and budgets for snow removal. All of our clients, some who we’ve had for a year now, seem very happy with what they’re receiving. In fact, we have clients renewing for another year of consulting from me. That weather app on your phone can be a huge hindrance to you as it only uses 1 weather model to make the forecast. In fact, a wrong forecast from that app can cost you time and money. Also, the forecasts that you get through the local news stations and the National Weather Service can be very general in nature and if you have a specific question for your location, good luck getting an answer from a “live” person. I solve all of this with the consulting I do for my clients. If you’re interested, e-mail me at contact@route20weather.com and I can work you up a quote based on your needs and budget.

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