For This Afternoon: More clouds than sunshine is expected throughout this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Winds will be West to Southwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Tonight: An area of low pressure is still expected to track well south of our area. The snow associated with this storm system is still expected to miss our area.
Skies tonight will be cloudy with low temperatures between 15 and 20 Degrees. Winds will be West to Southwest at 5 to 10 mph before midnight and North at 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
Wednesday: Generally cloudy skies are expected throughout Wednesday with high temperatures near 30 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night & Thursday: An area of low pressure is expected to track from the eastern Great Lakes region on Wednesday night and cross northern New England on Thursday morning. There have been some changes to the forecast since yesterday.
It appears that a secondary low pressure system probably will not develop near Long Island and track towards the Gulf of Maine. Instead, the low pressure system tracking across northern New England will be the main low pressure system. Because of this, plenty of milder air will stream into the region on Wednesday limiting the amount of snow that occurs and it now appears that we’ll probably see more rain than anything on Thursday morning. Also, with the low pressure system tracking across northern New England, most of the energy and moisture with this system will be confined to northern New England leading to the precipitation that does fall over our area to be quite light and intermittent in intensity.
Here Are My Latest Thoughts Based On The Most Current Data: Some light snow is expected to begin across the region during Wednesday evening and then continue until about midnight or so. Snowfall amounts during Wednesday evening now look to average between a coating to perhaps an inch or so.
The snow then looks to change to some very light sleet, freezing rain and freezing drizzle just after midnight Wednesday night. This very light and intermittent icy precipitation will continue for a few hours during the after midnight on Wednesday night before it changes to light rain around sunrise Thursday morning. A light glaze of ice is expected during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night.
Rain is then expected during Thursday morning before it ends around midday Thursday.
It should be noted that the precipitation may remain as freezing rain during Thursday morning across the Worcester Hills west of I-190 where some colder air may get trapped. If this does occur, then we could be looking at ice amounts of around one tenth of an inch or so leading to some quite slick conditions across the Hills west of I-190.
Once the rain ends around midday Thursday, skies will be cloudy throughout Thursday afternoon.
There are some caveats to this forecast that you should be aware of that is making this an uncertain forecast. The first caveat is that it’s still possible that colder air may stay locked in across the region longer than what is being shown right now with weather forecast guidance. If this happens, then snow would become the main precipitation type leading to more of a 1 to 3 inch or 2 to 4 inch snowfall. Another caveat is for the main low pressure system to really yank all of the moisture and energy northward leaving us with no snow or ice at all on Wednesday night and a band of rain to move through with the frontal system during Thursday morning. Not an easy forecast at all!!!
Low temperatures Wednesday night will be between 20 and 25 Degrees, which will occur during the evening. Temperatures are then expected to rise into the upper 20s by late Wednesday night. High temperatures Thursday will be between 35 and 40 Degrees.
Winds on Wednesday night will be East at 7 to 15 mph. Winds on Thursday will be East at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and West to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Another Storm System Is Expected To Bring A Messy Mix Of Snow, Ice & Rain From Saturday Afternoon Through Saturday Night, Sunday & Sunday Night: After a high pressure system gives the area a sunny day on Friday, I will be closely watching the progress of a storm system that’s expected to affect the area beginning as early as Saturday afternoon and continuing through all of Saturday night, all of Sunday and all of Sunday night.
This is probably also not going to be an easy forecast as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty with where exactly this storm system will track in relation to our area, whether there will be one main storm or two storm system that affect the area over a 2 day period and how much will fall in the way of snow, ice and rain.
For Now, This Is What I’m Thinking In Terms Of What This Storm Might Bring: Snow is expected during Saturday afternoon with the first storm system. That snow ends for a while on Saturday night as we wait for the second and stronger storm system. That second storm system begins to affect the area with sleet and freezing rain by first thing Sunday morning. This freezing rain and sleet continues during Sunday morning before it changes to rain for a while during Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The rain may change back to a brief period of snow late Sunday night before it ends.
Ice accumulations could be the biggest concern with this system over snow amounts or rain amounts. In fact, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that freezing rain could end up being the main precipitation type with this storm.
That said, this is a very complex and difficult forecast and because of this, you should expect changes to the forecast in the coming days. For now though, this was a brief outline of what to potentially expect.
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