A Major Winter Storm Is On The Way From Monday Night Until Wednesday Morning: It looks like the combination of heavy, wet snow, strong winds and blowing snow will lead to the likelihood of a major winter storm to affect a large part of Western and Central Mass beginning on Monday night and continuing until Wednesday morning.
That said, there are still some areas of the region that I have some uncertainty as to total snow amounts.
First though, I do think that the Berkshires are likely to see something like 18 to 24 inches of snow accumulation. I also think that the area from the northern Worcester Hills to the Worcester metro are pretty likely to see something like 15 to 20 inches of snow accumulation. I think that much of the Connecticut River Valley will probably experience a snow shadowing effect leading to much lower snow totals on the order of 5 to 10 inches or so.
The area that has some uncertainty in terms of snow totals with the upcoming storm are areas near and especially south of the Mass Pike, including I-84, I-395 and Route 146.
The reason for this uncertainty has to do with questions surrounding how quickly temperatures fall to the low 30s across this area. Weather forecast guidance mostly seem to agree that temperatures should cool enough to support accumulating snow near and south of the Mass Pike by about midnight. The exception may actually be areas near I-395 and Route 146 where it may take a prolonged period of time for the temperatures to cool enough to support accumulating snow. In fact, this could be a scenario where the snowfall gradient is extremely tight with areas of I-395 and Route 146 near Uxbridge, Douglas and Webster ending up with a sloppy, slushy 3 to 6 inches of snow and areas near Millbury and Grafton end up with 10-12 inches of heavy, wet snow.
That said, any small differences in how slowly the cold air pushes southward could lead to lower snow totals for all areas near and south of the Mass Pike.
So Here Are My Latest Thoughts Region By Region:
Worcester Metro Northward Through The Northern Worcester Hills & The Route 2 Corridor: I do think that precipitation will start out as a rain-snow mix during Monday afternoon with the precipitation changing to all snow by about sunset Monday.
During Monday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the night. In addition to this, East winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late at night leading to blowing snow.
Turning to Tuesday, snow is expected to fall all day long and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce considerable amounts of blowing snow throughout the day. The combination of falling snow and blowing snow will lead to blizzard conditions at times. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout the day Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the night. The snow may still fall at a heavy intensity at times during the evening with the intensity of the snow lightening up after midnight. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end during Wednesday morning with much improving conditions by afternoon.
Snow totals of 15 to 20 inches are still anticipated for areas from the Worcester metro to the northern Worcester Hills. Truth be told though, most areas probably will end up closer to 15 or 16 inches rather than 20 inches. That said, isolated 20 inch amounts are definitely in the cards, especially near Princeton and Leominster.
Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike, Including I-84, I-395 and Route 146: I do think that precipitation will start out as rain during Monday afternoon with the rain gradually changing to snow by early Monday evening. The exception to this may be areas around I-395 and Route 146 where the changeover from rain to snow may not occur until well after midnight Monday night. East winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late at night leading to blowing snow across areas that are snowing.
Turning to Tuesday, snow is expected to fall all day long and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce considerable amounts of blowing snow throughout the day. The combination of falling snow and blowing snow will lead to blizzard conditions at times. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout the day Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the night. The snow may still fall at a heavy intensity at times during the evening with the intensity of the snow lightening up after midnight. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end during Wednesday morning with much improving conditions by afternoon.
Snow totals of 10 to 15 inches are still anticipated for areas near and south of the Mass Pike. The exception may be across areas of I-395 near the Connecticut border and Route 146 near the Rhode Island where I’m going to forecast 5 to 10 inches of snow accumulation. As I said, the area near and south of the Mass Pike has a high amount of uncertainty due to lots of questions as to how quickly the rain changes to snow Monday night. Not an easy forecast at all!!!
The I-91 Corridor (Connecticut River Valley): I do think that precipitation will start out as rain during Monday afternoon with the rain continuing through much of, if not all of Monday night. A changeover from rain to snow looks to occur in the Connecticut River Valley by about sunrise Tuesday morning.
Turning to Tuesday, snow is expected to fall all day long and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce blowing snow throughout the day. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout the day Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the night. The snow may still fall at a heavy intensity at times during the evening with the intensity of the snow lightening up after midnight. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end during Wednesday morning with much improving conditions by afternoon.
Snow totals of 5 to 10 inches are still expected across the Connecticut River Valley. The snow amounts closer to 10 inches look to occur in the upper Pioneer Valley while snow totals closer to 5 inches look to occur in the lower Pioneer Valley.
The Berkshires: Snow is expected to begin across the Berkshires by about mid to late morning Monday. Snow then is expected to continue throughout Monday afternoon and Monday night. In addition to this, East winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late at night leading to blowing snow.
Turning to Tuesday, snow is expected to fall all day long and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce considerable amounts of blowing snow throughout the day. The combination of falling snow and blowing snow will lead to blizzard conditions at times. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout the day Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the night. The snow may still fall at a heavy intensity at times during the evening with the intensity of the snow lightening up after midnight. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end during Wednesday morning with much improving conditions by afternoon.
Snow totals of 18 to 24 inches are expected across the Berkshires with this storm.
I continue to work almost around the clock watching, tracking and forecasting this storm. Because of this, many more frequent storm updates will be sent out as needed.
