It continues to look likely that a major storm system that’s now located near the North Carolina coast is expected to move northward and strengthen rapidly near the south coast of Southern New England during Tuesday into early Wednesday.
This storm system will bring with it multiple weather hazards, including accumulating snow that will be very wet, very dense and extremely heavy in weight, strong winds with gusts of up to 40-50 mph at times and the threat that the heavy wet snow will weigh down trees, power lines and structures.
That said, the bust potential with this forecast in both directions is EXTREMELY HIGH. It’s going to be a battle between a mid-March sun angle and snowfall rates that will dictate final snow totals. If we see heavy to very heavy snow rates, it would easily overcome any solar insolation leading to the snow to accumulate with no issues at all and snow totals that end up higher than what I’m forecasting now. Alternatively, the mid-March sun angle could very well win out in the end leading to the precipitation to struggle to either change to snow or the snow that falls really doesn’t accumulate, especially in the Connecticut River Valley and across areas south of the Mass Pike. This would lead to drastically lower snow totals that I’m forecasting right now. I can tell you, without a doubt, that this is one of the most difficult winter storm forecasts I’ve done in quite a while.
One extremely important point I want to make is that the snow is expected to be very wet, extremely heavy in weight and very dense. This means that there will be a significant snow load factors that will very likely lead to the risk for snow damage across areas that see more than 4 inches of snow accumulation. This will combine with northeast winds that will gust up to 40 to 50 mph and lead to tree damage, power line damage and power outages.
So Here Are My Latest Thoughts Region By Region:
Worcester Metro Northward Through The Northern Worcester Hills & The Route 2 Corridor: Precipitation will change to snow across the Route 2 corridor and in the northern Worcester Hills very early this evening. The changeover to snow then looks to reach the Worcester Metro just after midnight tonight.
Snow is then expected to increase in intensity late tonight and will be falling a heavy intensity at times by sunrise Tuesday morning. In addition, Northeast winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph late tonight leading to blowing snow issues.
Turning to Tuesday, snow is expected to fall all day long and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce considerable amounts of blowing snow throughout the day. The combination of falling snow and blowing snow will lead to blizzard conditions at times. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday,STAY HOME!!Road conditions throughout the day Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the evening and will become much more intermittent after midnight Tuesday night. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to at least 50 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night,STAY HOME!!Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end by sunrise Wednesday morning. Even though the snow will be done on Wednesday, North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected and this could lead to additional issues with downed trees and power lines throughout Wednesday.
Snow totals of 15 to 20 inches are still expected for areas from the Worcester metro (especially the north side of the city as well as the seven hills) to the northern Worcester Hills. Truth be told though, most areas probably will end up closer to 15 or 16 inches rather than 20 inches. That said, I think areas around Princeton and Leominster will end up with 20 inches of snow.
Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike, Including I-84, I-395 and Route 146: Rain will begin to mix with snow this evening. The complete changeover to all snow looks to begin to occur across areas near the Mass Pike during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning and then reaching areas south of the Mass Pike, including I-84, I-395 and Route 146 around sunrise Tuesday morning.
Turning to Tuesday, snow is expected to fall all day long and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce considerable amounts of blowing snow throughout the day. The combination of falling snow and blowing snow will lead to blizzard conditions at times. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday,STAY HOME!!Road conditions throughout the day Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the evening and will become much more intermittent after midnight Tuesday night. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to at least 50 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end by sunrise Wednesday morning. Even though the snow will be done on Wednesday, North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected and this could lead to additional issues with downed trees and power lines throughout Wednesday.
Snow totals of 8 to 12 inches are expected across areas near the Mass Pike, including I-84. Further east, areas near I-395 may end up with snow totals of 8 to 12 inches or so and areas along Route 146 may end up with even less due to prolonged mixing with rain tonight into early Tuesday morning. For areas near Route 146, snow totals may range from a couple of inches near the Rhode Island border to about 4 to 8 inches or so around Millbury.
I want to strongly emphasize that the area near and south of the Mass Pike still has a high amount of uncertainty due to lots of questions as to how quickly the rain changes to snow tonight into Tuesday morning. Not an easy forecast at all!!!
The I-91 Corridor (Connecticut River Valley): Rain is expected throughout much of tonight with the rain changing to snow first across the upper Pioneer Valley well after midnight. The changeover to snow then looks to occur in the middle Pioneer Valley around sunrise Tuesday morning. Across the lower Pioneer Valley, including the Springfield Metro, the changeover from rain to snow looks to occur about the 8-10 am time frame or so Tuesday morning.
Turning to later Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon, snow is expected to fall and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce blowing snow throughout the day. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday,STAY HOME!!Road conditions throughout the late morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the evening and will become much more intermittent after midnight Tuesday night. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to at least 50 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end by sunrise Wednesday morning. Even though the snow will be done on Wednesday, North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected and this could lead to additional issues with downed trees and power lines throughout Wednesday.
Snow totals of 4 to 6 inches look likely across the lower Pioneer Valley and closer to 6 to 10 inches or so across the middle and especially the upper Pioneer Valley.
The Berkshires: Snow is expected throughout tonight. In addition to this, Northeast winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph late at night leading to blowing snow.
Turning to Tuesday, snow is expected to fall all day long and it will fall at a heavy intensity at times. In addition to this, Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph will produce considerable amounts of blowing snow throughout the day. The combination of falling snow and blowing snow will lead to blizzard conditions at times. If you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday,STAY HOME!!Road conditions throughout the day Tuesday will be extremely hazardous due to heavy, wet snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the combination of the strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the evening and will become much more intermittent after midnight Tuesday night. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to at least 50 mph will continue to produce blowing snow throughout Tuesday night. Once again, if you do not have to absolutely travel on Tuesday night, STAY HOME!! Road conditions throughout Tuesday night will continue to be extremely hazardous due to snow and blowing snow.
In addition to this, the continued combination of strong winds and the weight of the wet snow on trees and power lines will very likely lead to tree damage, downed power lines and power outages on Tuesday night.
The snow should come to an end by sunrise Wednesday morning. Even though the snow will be done on Wednesday, North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected and this could lead to additional issues with downed trees and power lines throughout Wednesday.
Snow totals of 18 to 24 inches are expected across the Berkshires with this storm.
From here on out, you’ll be receiving fairly frequent short storm updates from me as I go into “real-time weather monitoring” mode.
