For Tonight: An area of low pressure is expected to rapidly strengthen as it heads for Atlantic Canada tonight. The pressure gradient between that low pressure system and a high pressure system located to our west will lead to some very windy conditions throughout tonight.
Cloudy skies with some scattered rain or snow showers is expected early this evening as a cold front crosses the region. Once that front moves through, skies will become clear to partly cloudy during the overnight hours and it will be very windy.
Low temperatures will be between 13 and 18 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50-55 mph.
Friday: A very windy day is expected on Friday under partly sunny skies. High temperatures will be between 25 and 30 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 to 55 mph.
Friday Night: Skies are expected to start out clear to partly cloudy during Friday evening with an increase in high clouds expected during the late night hours.
Low temperatures will be between 8 and 13 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
A Long Duration Snow & Ice Storm Is Expected From Saturday Afternoon Until Late Sunday Night: If you have plans for anytime between Saturday afternoon and Sunday night, my recommendation to you is to either cancel or reschedule those plans as quite the winter storm is anticipated across the entire area. Also, this looks to be a long duration storm that lasts for about 36 hours or so.
Snow is expected to begin across the entire area between about 2 pm and 4 pm Saturday afternoon. The snow is then expected to continue right through the late afternoon and evening hours of Saturday and it looks probable that the snow will be moderate in intensity at times.
As we get into the after midnight hours of Saturday night, some above freezing air at about 5,000 feet above ground level will push into the region. This will cause the snow to change to freezing rain and sleet from south to north across the entire area between 3 am and 7 am Sunday morning.
Snow accumulations Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening are expected to average between 3 and 5 inches across the entire area.
I am pretty concerned that we may be looking at a long duration freezing rain event across parts of Western and Central Mass during the day on Sunday that lasts into Sunday evening.
Freezing rain and sleet will be occurring across the entire area during Sunday morning.
The question then becomes whether the freezing rain changes to rain or not as we get into Sunday afternoon and this is the part of the forecast that is highly uncertain. When looking at the weather forecast guidance, I do notice distinct evidence of another cold air damming event where colder air from northern New England seeps down into our area leading to temperatures to struggle to rise to above freezing. This is concerning because the precipitation during the day on Sunday will be moderate to heavy at times, so if the precipitation stays as freezing rain, we could have some big time icing problems.
At this point, I think the area that has the greatest chance of changing from freezing rain to rain will be across areas south of the Mass Pike, across far eastern Worcester County and across the lower Pioneer Valley.
For areas near and north of the Mass Pike, including the Worcester Metro and all of the towns in the Worcester Hills, the freezing rain may continue all afternoon on Sunday right into Sunday evening. Also, the middle and upper Pioneer Valley may stay as all freezing rain during Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as cold air near the surface remains locked into the region.
How Much Ice Might Occur?
For areas south of the Mass Pike & across the lower Pioneer Valley, ice amounts of one tenth to two tenths of an inch are a possibility during Sunday morning before the freezing rain changes to rain by Sunday afternoon. It should be noted that if the change from freezing rain to rain does not occur, then ice accumulations may be much higher than this.
For areas near and north of the Mass and across the middle and upper Pioneer Valley, ice amounts of at least one quarter of an inch is a possibility during the day on Sunday. Up to one third of an inch to one half of an inch of ice is not out of the question across the Worcester Hills west of I-190. These ice accumulations could be enough to lead to at least isolated power outages due to tree limbs snapping under the weight of ice.
Travel conditions throughout Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, all of Sunday and much of Sunday night will be very hazardous due to the combination of snow and then ice. It’s definitely going to be better if you stay off of the roads, if you can.
All precipitation is expected to come to an end by about midnight on Sunday night.
I am watching this weekend’s storm extremely closely and will have many more updates for you as needed.
Very Windy Conditions Expected Monday Through Tuesday: Once that weekend storm moves past, we can expect a period of very windy conditions from Monday right through Tuesday. This means that any ice weighted tree branches and power lines from the weekend storm may be very susceptible to being snapped leading to power outage issues throughout Monday right through Tuesday.
How windy might it be? It looks like we are looking at West to Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph throughout all of Monday, all of Monday night and all of Tuesday.
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