A Coastal Storm Will Bring 1 To 3 Inches Of Rain & Gusty Winds To Western & Central Mass From Sunday Afternoon Until Sometime On Tuesday

Latest On The Coastal Storm & Its Expected Impacts On Western & Central Mass: Overall, the forecast for the upcoming coastal storm hasn’t changed a whole lot since yesterday’s update. It continues to look fairly likely that this storm will bring upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain and northeast winds that gust up to 40 mph at times beginning on Sunday afternoon and lasting until sometime on Tuesday. That being said, there is some uncertainty as to whether there will be one main low pressure system or whether there could be a double-barreled low pressure system structure. This difference is important in that if we do see a double low pressure system setup, it could lead to less rain to occur.

Current weather analysis this afternoon reveals that a low pressure system is located just offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. This one low pressure system is expected to head northward reaching the coastal parts of North Carolina during the day on Sunday. Some of the weather forecast guidance are insisting that a second low pressure system will take shape somewhere just offshore of the New Jersey coastline by late Sunday. Other weather forecast show the one low pressure system structure that slowly climbs up the East Coast reaching southern New Jersey by Monday.

This possible double low pressure system setup has caused some real chaos in the weather guidance as they don’t quite know what to do with it. Some guidance show the further north low to pivot westward while other guidance show both lows being pulled out.

All-in-all, this continues to be a headache of a storm forecast & one that is still uncertain. This is not ideal since we are less than 24 hours away from when the rain should start falling.

My opinion remains the same and that is that the weather forecast guidance is not resolving the evolution of this storm system correctly. Instead, I think that the correct evolution is for one main low pressure center that slowly moves northward from the North Carolina on Sunday to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. I then think that this low pressure system will track just to south of Long Island by Monday night and Tuesday and head out away from the East Coast after that.

What this means for Western & Central Mass is that I think that we’ll probably see rain, which will probably be heavy at times, along with northeast winds that gust up to 40 mph or so at times starting on Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday and even into Tuesday. That being said, this is still an uncertain forecast & because of this, changes in the forecast may still occur.

Here is my latest forecast for Sunday through Tuesday based on what I’m currently expecting in terms of storm impacts on our area:

Sunday will be cloudy with rain overspreading the area from south to north during the afternoon. High temperatures will be near 55 Degrees. Winds will be East to Northeast at 10 to 15 mph in the morning and Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Rain is expected throughout Sunday night and the rain may be heavy at times. In addition, it looks to be windy throughout the night on Sunday night with Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Low temperatures will be near 45 Degrees.

Rain is expected to continue throughout the day on Monday and the rain may be heavy at times. Windy conditions are also expected throughout the day on Monday. High temperatures Monday will be between 50 and 55 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Steady rain with windy conditions are expected to continue throughout Monday night. Low temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Rain looks to continue through Tuesday morning before it comes to an end during Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will be near 55 Degrees.

My forecast rainfall total map is attached to this post:

I continue to keep close tabs on the progress of this coastal storm and more updates will be sent out as needed.