An Elevation Dependent Snowfall Is Expected From Mid-Morning Sunday Through Monday Morning: An area of low pressure is expected to move off of the Mid-Atlantic coast during Sunday and then track to the south of New England on Sunday night and Monday morning.
This storm system will most definitely bring more than 6 inches of snow accumulation across the northern Worcester Hills and across the Berkshires where the temperature profiles and elevation will be favorable for mostly all snow.
Further south, the snowfall forecast becomes much more uncertain as the temperature profile will be marginal and looks to support a mixed bag of rain, sleet and snow that gradually changes to all snow.
Precipitation in the form of rain and sleet is expected to overspread areas near and south of the Mass Pike by mid-morning or so on Sunday. This precipitation will then push northward reaching areas near the Route 2 corridor in the form of all snow shortly before midday.
As we get into the early afternoon hours, it appears that the precipitation will come down at a moderate to heavy rate for a while and this will lead to a flip to all snow across all of Western and Central Mass starting around midday and lasting until about 3-4 pm or so Sunday afternoon. A quick 2 to 3 inches or so of snow could occur during the first half of Sunday afternoon.
During the late afternoon and evening hours of Sunday, a change from all snow to sleet and rain looks to occur across the Pioneer Valley, as well as across areas near and south of the Mass Pike, including areas around I-84, I-395 and Route 146. In fact, areas as far north as I-290 may change to sleet and rain for a while during late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The only areas that look to remain as all snow during late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening will be the northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires.
A change back to all snow is anticipated to occur across all of Western and Central during the after midnight hours of Sunday night. This snow looks to last into Monday morning with the snow intensity generally light to perhaps moderate in nature.
Snow comes to an end across the entire area during the first half of Monday afternoon.
Our latest snowfall forecast map is attached to this post.
By far the highest snow amounts of 8 to 10 inches of accumulation looks to occur in the northern Worcester Hills and across the Berkshires. This is expected to be a wet and heavy snow and because of this, some power outages are a distinct possibility.
The lowest snow amounts look to occur across areas south of the Mass Pike and across the lower Pioneer Valley where a lot of the precipitation will be expended as rain and sleet. Even here, snow amounts of up to 4 inches or so seems likely.
Temperatures during Sunday, Sunday night and Monday will hold steady between 30 and 35 Degrees.
Winds on Sunday will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph. It will turn more windy during Sunday night and Monday with North winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Bottom Line Is That the snow accumulation forecast with the upcoming storm continues to be very uncertain, especially across the Pioneer Valley, as well as across areas south of I-290. Any prolonged banding of heavy precipitation with this storm or a slightly colder temperature profile would lead to higher snow amounts. Alternatively, a milder temperature profile with less forcing and energy could lead to much lower snow totals. The boom or bust potential with this storm is very high.