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Very Windy & Very Mild Mon Afternoon Turns Sharply Colder Mon Night Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of Today: An area of high pressure will be in control of the weather throughout the rest of today. This means that skies will be partly sunny throughout the rest of today with high temperatures of between 40 and 45 Degrees. Tonight: That high pressure system will move to the east tonight as an area of low pressure heads into the upper Great Lakes region and a frontal system approaches us from the west. Skies are expected to become cloudy this evening with some scattered rain showers expected after midnight. It needs to be pointed out that areas near and north of Route 2 may see some spotty freezing rain after midnight as the showers run into some near freezing surface temperatures. This means that driving conditions in the northern Worcester Hills and along Route 2 could be slippery in spots late tonight into early Monday morning. Temperatures tonight will initially fall to near 30 Degrees this evening, but will rise to between 34 and 39 Degrees after midnight. Monday: A warm front will push its way northward across Southern New England during Monday morning. Scattered rain showers will accompany the warm front with scattered showers expected throughout Western and Central Mass during Monday morning. That warm front will be located to our north by Monday afternoon and because of this, it’s expected to be very mild and very windy throughout Monday afternoon. High temperatures Monday afternoon will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. South to southwest winds are expected to gust up to 35 to 40 mph at times during Monday afternoon. In addition to all of this, some scattered showers are possible, especially during the late afternoon hours. Monday Night: A strong cold front is expected to move through Southern New England during Monday evening. This frontal passage will be accompanied by a band of heavy showers and maybe a thunderstorm during Monday evening. In addition, south to southwest winds will gust up to 40 to 45 mph at times during Monday evening with a sharp shift in the wind direction to the west and northwest when the front passes. Once that front moves through, temperatures are expected to drop sharply from the 50s early in the evening to the mid to upper 30s by midnight. In addition, any leftover passing rain showers will change to a passing snow shower or two after midnight Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night will be near 30 Degrees. Tuesday: An area of high pressure will very briefly control our weather on Tuesday with partly sunny skies expected. High temperatures Tuesday will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. The depth, placement and longevity of this cold air is going to be crucial in determining the track of Wednesday’s storm and where exactly it’ll snow and where exactly the snow, ice and rain line sets up. Wednesday: Even though it is still looking fairly likely that a widespread snowfall will occur across Western and Central Mass during Wednesday into Wednesday night, there are significant questions around the track of the low pressure system and where exactly the northern edge of the snow shield will set up. The various weather forecast guidance all have different “answers” to this question. The GFS weather model is the most amplified and points to a track near Nantucket that leads to a 6 to 10 inch snowfall across all of Western and Central Mass. It’s possible though that the GFS model may be too aggressive as all of the other weather forecast guidance shows a further offshore track. The European weather model and the Canadian weather model seems to show a track that keeps the storm track fairly far south of Nantucket, which would mean either a 1 to 3 inch or a 2 to 4 inch snowfall. The reason for this difference in the weather forecast guidance has to do with the strength and position of an upper level trough of low pressure. The GFS weather model forecasts a sharp and dynamic trough that allows the surface low pressure system to get close to the area. The European weather model, on the other hand, forecasts a weaker and flatter trough that allows the storm system to slide well south of the area. Here Are My Thoughts: It’s evident that the various model guidance are going through their “windshield wiper” phase where one model forecast run shows a further south track that then gets reversed in the subsequent forecast model runs. It’s my experience that the model guidance end up “correcting” further north with the low pressure track just before the storm commences and right now, model guidance such as the European and Canadian models may be too far south with the forecast track. With that said, I think that the GFS weather model may be too far north and too robust with its snowfall forecast. Here Is My Forecast - Snow looks to begin across all of Western and Central Mass probably during the 8 to 10 am time frame on Wednesday morning. The snow is then expected to continue through all of Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday evening before the snow comes to an end around midnight Wednesday night. As For Possible Snow Accumulations – My thinking right now is for snow amounts to range from 1 to 3 inches from the Berkshires to the upper Pioneer Valley of Western Mass to northern parts of Worcester County to 3 to 6 inches or so of snowfall across the rest of Western and Central Mass. Obviously, this is not going to be a big deal at all in terms of snow amounts, but it’ll still be enough snow accumulations to cause slippery roads throughout Wednesday and Wednesday evening across the entire area. Also, the snow will definitely make it look much more like Christmas across the region. Again, these are still just early preliminary thoughts on possible snow amounts. It’s very plausible that the track well south of the area could end up being correct, which would mean much less snow than what I’m forecasting. On the other hand, it’s also plausible that a more amplified storm track could occur, which would mean a slightly bigger snowfall than what I’m forecasting. Nevertheless, I am keeping close tabs on both this storm and also the storm for Monday and I will have frequent updates on both as needed.

Thursday To Next Sunday: A dry, but cold day is expected on Thursday with high temperatures near 35 Degrees. A relatively weak frontal system moves through for Friday bringing with it some scattered rain shower activity and high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. We’re going to be watching the potential for a storm system that could move across New England either on Saturday night or Sunday. Early indications continue to point towards this being a mostly rain event with temperatures in the 40s. With that said, it’s possible that we could end up seeing a further south track, which would lead to more of a snow threat. Either way, it’s a storm to keep an eye on.

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