Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon Into Tonight Across Western & Central Mass: A warm front will lift to our north by midday. The clouds and areas of fog will give way to some sunshine by midday and this will cause temperatures to climb to around 85 Degrees by early this afternoon. These temperatures combined with a very humid air mass will produce an atmosphere that is favorable for the development of thunderstorms this afternoon.
The trigger for the thunderstorm activity is a robust piece of atmospheric energy that will track from New York State into western Mass this afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop across Western and Central Mass between about 12 pm and 2 pm and then increase in coverage and strength during the mid and late afternoon hours of today. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe. These thunderstorms, some of which will be strong to severe, will continue into at least the first half of tonight before ending late tonight.
Some Things To Point Out:
1. This probably will not be a widespread significant severe weather event. Instead, I think that we are looking at a few thunderstorms that will probably become severe this afternoon into tonight.
2. Given the expected very unstable air mass combined with strengthening winds in the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere, any severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of producing strong wind gusts. This does not look like a widespread damaging wind event, but some localized areas of wind damage are possible.
3. There will likely be enough of a combination of wind shear and unstable air to cause some of the thunderstorms to rotate. This means that there is a low risk for a tornado or two across the region.
4. Torrential downpours with localized flooding can be expected with the thunderstorm activity.
Bottom Line Is That Thunderstorms are expected across Western and Central Mass from about 12-2 pm this afternoon until about midnight to 2 am tonight. A few of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe capable of producing strong wind gusts and torrential downpours with localized flooding. Also, there is the possibility for some of these thunderstorms to rotate and thus there is a low risk for a tornado or two.