For The Rest Of This Afternoon: Lots of sunshine is expected throughout the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Tonight: An area of high pressure will be positioned right over our area tonight, which will lead to quite the cold night for mid-November. Skies tonight will be clear with low temperatures of 19 to 24 Degrees. It should be noted that some of the normally colder locations will probably get down to 12 to 17 Degrees for low temperatures. Winds will be Northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday: That high pressure system will remain in control of the weather, even though it’ll be gradually moving to the east. At the same time this is occurring, an area of low pressure will be taking shape over the Mid-Atlantic States. This all means that Tuesday will start out with lots of sunshine during the morning. During the afternoon, I expect that there will be an increase of cloudiness as that low pressure system begins to approach the area from the southwest. High temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be North to Northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night Through Wednesday: An area of low pressure, which will be located over the Mid-Atlantic states during Tuesday evening will move northeastward and pass near the south coast of New England by Wednesday morning. That low pressure system is then expected to move across the Gulf of Maine during Wednesday afternoon before heading into western Nova Scotia Wednesday evening. All indications continue to point towards this storm system bringing the entire area at least some wintry precipitation Tuesday night before it changes to rain during the day on Wednesday. The big questions continue to be (1) How cold will it be when the precipitation begins on Tuesday night and (2) Will the colder air get locked in at all due to a persistent northeasterly wind. At this point, it appears that temperatures when the precipitation begins should be in the upper 20s to around 30 Degrees or so. Because of this, I think that it’s very likely that the precipitation will start as snow everywhere when it overspreads the area around midnight or so Tuesday night. As for trying to answer question number 2 – There is going to be a bit of a battle that’ll occur in terms of a north to northeast surface wind pulling in colder air from northern New England and a southerly wind at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, which will be trying to pull in milder air. This, I think, will cause the temperature profile of the atmosphere become more conducive to causing the snow to change to a freezing rain and sleet mixture later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. During the daytime hours of Wednesday, there should be enough warming at all levels of the atmosphere to cause the precipitation to change to all rain. That said, I have concerns that the Berkshires, the western hilltowns of Western Mass, the northern Worcester Hills and areas near and north of Route 2 may see the freezing rain persist until at least midday Wednesday. In Terms Of Forecast Details, Here Are My Thoughts: It looks like snow will develop everywhere across Western and Central Mass around midnight or so Tuesday night. The changeover line from snow to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will push its way northward, first reaching areas south of the Mass Pike by about 2-3 am, then reaching areas near the Mass Pike by about 4 am or so. For areas north of the Mass Pike, the changeover from snow to sleet and freezing rain looks to occur during the 4 to 6 am time frame. As for the changeover from sleet and freezing rain to rain, that looks to possibly occur just before sunrise Wednesday morning across areas near and especially south of the Mass Pike. For areas north of the Mass Pike, as well as across areas west of I-91, the freezing rain and sleet looks to persist for a few hours Wednesday morning before it changes to rain everywhere by mid-morning or so. The exception to this may be west of I-91 and near and especially north of Route 2, where the sleet and freezing rain may hang on until late morning Wednesday. Even here though, all precipitation should change to all rain. Rain is then expected to continue everywhere through all of Wednesday afternoon before it ends near sunset Wednesday. Snowfall amounts are expected to range from a dusting near and south of the Mass Pike to less than one inch in areas from north of the Mass Pike to areas south of Route 2. For areas near and north of Route 2, it appears that snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible before it changes to freezing rain and sleet. Ice accumulations are expected to range from a very light glaze of ice late Tuesday night across areas near and south of the Mass Pike to up to one tenth of an inch of ice across areas north of the Mass Pike late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. For areas in the northern Worcester Hills, near and north of Route 2 and areas west of I-91 and especially in the Berkshires, ice accumulations late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning may be in the one tenth (0.10”) to two tenths (0.20”) of an inch range. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be between 27 and 31 Degrees. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be between 40 and 45 Degrees.
Thursday Through Sunday: An area of high pressure will control the weather for late this coming week through this weekend. Thursday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. Friday looks sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. Saturday is expected to be sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. Sunday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees.