For The Rest Of Today: Sunny skies are expected throughout the rest of this morning as an area of high pressure is right over our area. That high pressure system is expected to push to the east this afternoon as a warm front begins to approach the area. This means that there will be an increase in high and mid-level clouds this afternoon, which will filter the sunshine. High temperatures today will be between 50 and 55 Degrees.
Tonight: A warm front is expected to lift northward across our area tonight pushing milder air into Western and Central Mass. This means that skies tonight will be cloudy and there may be a couple of light rain showers around from time to time. Low temperatures tonight will be near 40 Degrees.
Tuesday: A cold front now located over the Great Lakes is expected to move across Western and Central Mass during Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.
Skies on Tuesday are expected to be cloudy and there will be a few showers around throughout the day. In fact, a line of scattered showers is likely to accompany the front when it pushes through between about 2 pm and 5 pm Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be near 55 Degrees.
Wednesday: An area of high pressure will very briefly build into the area on Wednesday giving us a sunny day. High temperatures Wednesday will be between 45 and 50 Degrees.
Snow Possible Thursday Night Through Friday Morning: It looks like that there is a fairly high chance for snow Thursday night into Friday across Western and Central Mass. How much snow accumulates is yet to be determined and it depends on the strength & track of a low pressure system moving along a frontal boundary. There are a couple of possible scenarios:
The first scenario is for a distinct low pressure system to move near the South Coast of New England and across Nantucket on Friday morning. This will combine with some very cold air for this time of year that will be pushing southward into the area. This leads to 3 to 6 inches of wet, sticky, heavy snow to accumulate across Western and Central Mass starting on Thursday evening and continuing through all of Thursday night and Friday morning before ending midday Friday.
A second possible scenario is for little or no low pressure system and instead we are left with some light moisture moving along a frontal boundary. This would lead to some very light snow or snow shower activity on Thursday night that ends Friday morning. Snow amounts with this scenario would be in the dusting to 1 inch category.
Here Are My Thoughts: The weather feature that we are going to have to watch in determining how much snow we will receive is a piece of energy that will push southward from Alberta Province in Canada. The further south this piece of energy moves, the more interaction it will have with moisture pushing northeastward from the southern United States. If we see the energy from Canada interact with the moisture moving northeastward, then we would likely see a distinct low pressure system move near the South Coast of New England on Thursday night and Friday morning.
On the other hand, if these two weather features remain separate, then this piece of energy would be moisture starved and thus a very light snowfall or just some snow shower activity would result on Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Based on the analysis that I’ve done this morning, I do think that the first scenario that I outlined earlier in my forecast may be the way to go. This means that there is an increasing chance that all of Western and Central Mass will see the first snow accumulations of the season on Thursday night and Friday morning. In addition, there is the possibility that significant snow amounts are possible, especially in the Worcester Hills and in the Hilltowns of Western Mass.
With that said, early season snow events are usually very difficult to forecast as any small changes in the temperature profile of the atmosphere would mean the difference between a rain-snow mix and a significant dump of wet, heavy snow.
My first call snow forecast map is for at least a couple of inches of wet, sticky, heavy snow across all of Western and Central Mass with higher amounts possible in northern Worcester County and across the Berkshires. Please note that this is a first educated guess for snow accumulations and this forecast will likely change over the next couple of days or so. I urge everyone across Western and Central Mass to keep checking back for forecast updates regarding the snowfall forecast for Thursday night and Friday morning.
Record Early Season Cold Weather Is Expected Friday Afternoon & Friday Night Through This Weekend: It looks quite likely that some very cold weather for this time of year will impact Western and Central Mass from Friday afternoon and Friday night right through this weekend. How cold it gets at night will depend on if there is any snow on the ground.
At this point, I think that high temperatures Friday afternoon will be between 35 and 40 Degrees.
Low temperatures Friday night may drop down to 15 to 20 Degrees.
High temperatures Saturday will be between 35 and 40 Degrees.
Low temperatures Saturday night will be between 15 and 20 Degrees.
Record low temperatures may occur on both Friday night and Saturday night. The record low temperatures for Worcester on Friday night is 13 Degrees set in 1931 and Saturday night’s record low in Worcester is 15 Degrees set in 1971. For Springfield, the record low temperature on Friday night is 15 Degrees set in 1992 and on Saturday night, the record low temperature is 14 Degrees set in 1965.
The weather for this weekend looks sunny to partly sunny during the day and clear skies at night on both Saturday and Sunday.
A Second Chance For Accumulating Snow For Next Monday Night & Next Tuesday: There is the possibility for another round of accumulating snow across Western and Central Mass next Monday night through next Tuesday as another area of low pressure rides along a frontal boundary found near the New England coast. It is WAY too soon to even start entertaining snow amount forecasts. I will say that there is a strong enough signal in the data to suggest that it could be plowable amounts of snow and is a system to definitely keep a very close eye on.
Thank you for reading our latest forecast for Western and Central Mass.
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