Severe Weather Possible Mid & Late Thursday Afternoon Across Western & Parts Of Central Mass

Severe weather looks to be a possible significant concern across Western and Central Mass for Thursday afternoon and I wanted to give you a heads-up of what may be coming. The weather setup for Thursday is expected to consist of a northward moving warm front that will combine with strong mid-level winds and quite a bit of warm and unstable air south of the front. The exact position of this warm front will be critical in determining how bad the severe weather will be on Thursday afternoon. Some showers and maybe a thunderstorm is expected to cross Western and Central Mass between about 8 am and 11 am Thursday morning. The big question after the showers moves through is how far will the warm front push into southern New England. On one hand, if the warm front stays to our south, then the severe weather threat for Thursday afternoon will be extremely low & we will see temperatures in the low to mid 70s. On the other hand, if the warm front pushes through Western and Central Mass, then warm and humid air will push into the region & there will likely be significant severe weather during Thursday afternoon. At this point, I think much of Western Mass, except perhaps the far upper Pioneer Valley will get into the warm and humid sector during Thursday afternoon. As for Central Mass, the warm and humid air may be stopped by the Worcester Hills and only southwestern parts of Worcester County may get into the really sultry air while the rest of Worcester County stay in the 70s. So, the combination of the warm, humid and unstable air and strong wind shear will help to produce the development of strong to severe thunderstorms that develop first across northwestern Mass around mid-afternoon Thursday and then push quickly southeastward during the late afternoon hours of Thursday potentially reaching the Mass Pike from the Mass-New York border to Sturbridge around 5 pm or so. Any severe thunderstorms that move through during the mid and late afternoon hours of Thursday will be capable of producing wind gusts of up to 60-80 mph and large hail. In addition, a warm frontal setup like this is always very dangerous in Southern New England as storms will rapidly rotate along them & can produce tornadoes. So, the tornado threat is certainly there for the mid and late afternoon hours of Thursday, especially along and west of I-91. It needs to be emphasized that there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to how bad the severe weather will be. If the warm front does end up staying to our south, then the severe weather will also end up remaining across Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Mass. On the other hand, if the warm front pushes through all of Western and Central Mass, then a widespread, significant severe weather event may unfold between 3 pm and 7 pm Thursday. Thank you for reading my latest forecast for Western and Central Mass. I do not charge for this information, but I am asking for donations to offset operating costs. All donations go to directly offsetting my costs of running Route 20 Weather which include (but not limited to) website hosting & bandwidth, subscriptions to weather data services, as well as electricity and broadband internet. Any amount that you can donate is truly appreciated! Donations can be made by PayPal using E-Mail address or by going to . If you would rather donate by check or money order, please e-mail me at & I can send you my mailing address. Thank you again for your support of Route 20 Weather!


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