For The Rest Of Today: Lots of sunshine, warm afternoon temperatures and very comfortable humidity levels are expected throughout the rest of today thanks to an area of high pressure. High temperatures this afternoon will be near 80 Degrees.
Tonight: Clear skies with light winds are expected tonight with low temperatures near 55 Degrees.
Monday: An area of high pressure will linger over the area on Monday with a mixture of sunshine and clouds expected. High temperatures Monday will be near 85 Degrees with continued comfortable humidity levels.
Tuesday: A warm and humid air mass will push into southern New England on Tuesday. At the same time this is happening, a strong area of low pressure will move from near Lake Erie on Tuesday morning to southeastern New York State by late Tuesday afternoon.
There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty as to how this low pressure system will impact our weather. Some of the forecast guidance such as the NAM and GFS model show a low pressure track right over southern New England which would bring heavy rain for several hours on Tuesday. On the other hand, other forecast guidance, including the European model forecasts that this low pressure system will track to the south of New England leading to most of the heavy rain staying to our south.
At this point, I think that we may see this low pressure system track across Connecticut, Rhode Island and then across the Cape before heading out into the Atlantic. If this low pressure system does take this sort of a track, it would lead to several hours of heavy rain with the chance for a thunderstorm or two across areas of Western and Central Mass that are south of the Mass Pike. For areas along and north of the Mass Pike, periods of light rain can be expected on Tuesday.
With that said, any small shifts in the track of the low pressure system will have large implications on our weather for Tuesday. Should this low pressure system move right across Western and Central Mass, then heavy rain, gusty winds and a few thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday with 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. On the other hand, if this low pressure system moves further south than currently forecast, then a cloudy day with a few showers would be expected.
Another thing to be concerned about on Tuesday are the possibility of a strong to severe thunderstorm or two. The atmosphere near and just to the south of where the low pressure system tracks will be somewhat unstable with strong amounts of wind shear present. This means that areas south of the Mass Pike may see a strong to severe thunderstorm or two on Tuesday that could produce some strong wind gusts. In addition, given the strong amounts of wind shear, any thunderstorms will need to be monitored for signs of rotation.
High temperatures Tuesday will be near 75 Degrees.
Wednesday: That low pressure system will head eastward away from our area as an area of high pressure builds in from the northwest.
A partly sunny day is expected on Wednesday with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees.
Thursday Through Friday: There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the weather forecast for late this week as some of the weather guidance shows another low pressure system impacting our area. Other weather forecast guidance shows no such low pressure system and instead is forecasting high pressure to control our weather.
At this point, I think that there will probably be at least partial sunshine on both Thursday and Friday and there may be a few showers around as well. High temperatures on both Thursday and Friday will be between 75 and 80 Degrees.
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