A Long Duration Winter Storm Will Affect Western & Central Mass From This Afternoon Through Tonight, Monday, Monday Night & Tuesday Morning: A long duration winter storm is still expected to affect Western and Central Mass starting this afternoon and continuing through all of tonight, all of Monday and all of Monday night. The storm looks to come to an end sometime on Tuesday morning.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near the New Jersey coast this evening and then very slowly move near the south coast of New England during Monday and Monday night. From there, this low pressure system will head for Nova Scotia on Tuesday. This will not be a pure snowstorm for much of Western and Central Mass. While, the Berkshires and far northern parts of Mass will probably stay as all snow, areas from the middle and lower Pioneer Valley eastward along the Mass Pike and into southern Worcester County will see a messy mixture of snow to start with, followed by snow, sleet and freezing rain and then ending as snow.
As I have mentioned in my previous forecasts, this will not be a typical quick hitting winter storm. Instead, this is expected to be a long-duration 3 part winter storm that lasts almost 48 hours in some places.
Here Is A Timeline Of What I Am Expecting:
This Afternoon Into This Evening: Snow will first overspread Western Mass between about 2 and 3 pm this afternoon and then overspread Central Mass between about 3 and 5 pm this afternoon. The snow may come down at a moderate to heavy rate at times late this afternoon and this evening with 1 inch per hour snowfall rates at times.
It appears that the snow will start to mix with sleet across areas along and south of the Mass Pike by about 8-9 pm this evening.
Snowfall accumulations from this first part of the storm will range from 2 to 4 inches across far northern Mass to 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation for areas along and south of the Mass Pike.
Overnight Hours Of Tonight Through Monday Morning: Sleet with some freezing rain is expected during the overnight hours of tonight from the lower and middle Pioneer Valley of Western Mass to southern Worcester County. Mainly light freezing rain and freezing drizzle is expected across northern and northeastern Connecticut during the overnight hours of tonight. Further west and further north, all snow is expected to continue across the Berkshires, the far upper Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and northern Worcester County, although the snow will be light in intensity.
The messy mixture of light snow, light sleet and light freezing rain is expected to continue through Monday morning across Western and Central Mass.
Snow and ice accumulations will be light with at most 1 to 3 more inches of snow accumulation. Around one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation is expected across northern and northeastern Connecticut.
Monday Afternoon: Precipitation will gradually change over to all snow, however, it will be very light in intensity. In fact, it is possible that the snow may end for a little while during late Monday morning and during Monday afternoon. Be aware though that more snow is expected on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Monday Night & Tuesday Morning: This is the part of the forecast that is very uncertain & has a high “bust” factor. While it is expected to snow on Monday night into Tuesday morning, the intensity of the snowfall is in question. Some of the weather data indicates that another round of heavy snow will pivot across Western and Central Mass during the overnight hours of Monday night and last into early Tuesday morning. Other data, however, points to this heavy snow missing our area and impacting far northeastern Mass into the seacoast of New Hampshire into southwest Maine. Instead, we would be left with light snow on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
The uncertainty of this part of the forecast not only impacts the forecast snow amounts for Monday night and Tuesday morning, but it also impacts the overall total snow amounts for this storm. On one hand, if we do see the heavy snow impact Western and Central Mass, then another 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation would occur. On the other hand, if we only see some light snow on Monday night and Tuesday morning, then an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation would occur & would also cut down on the overall total storm snow accumulations.
At this point, I’m thinking that a round of heavier snow that begins around midnight Monday night and continues into the first part of Tuesday morning will impact mainly areas from the eastern Hilltowns of Western Mass through much of Worcester County. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour is possible at times late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Additional snowfall amounts that range from 2 to 4 inches across Western Mass to 3 to 6 more inches are possible late Monday night and early Tuesday morning.
The snow will come to an end later Tuesday morning across Western Mass and during early Tuesday afternoon across Central Mass.
Travel Conditions: It appears that there will be two time windows where travel could be very hazardous – the first from this afternoon through tonight when heavy snow will initially lead to very poor road conditions, which will be followed by an icy mixture of precipitation. The second time window will be from about midnight Monday night into Tuesday morning when our second possible round of heavier snow will lead to poor travel conditions. Travel later Monday morning through Monday afternoon and Monday evening may be okay in many places as precipitation rates will be very light & it may actually stop for a while.
You will find my latest forecast total snow & ice accumulation map below.
Keep checking back for updates on this storm.