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Light Snow & Rain Tonight Into Sat; A Very Significant Winter Storm Possible From Mon Night-Wed AM

For Tonight & Saturday: An area of low pressure is expected to track southeastward from western Pennsylvania to the area south of Long Island, New York. This low pressure system looks to bring both some snow and rain to Western and Central Mass tonight into Saturday. At this point, I think we’re looking at light rain overspreading the Connecticut River Valley and light snow beginning in the Berkshires by about the 8-10 pm time frame this evening. Across Central Mass, precipitation initially in the form of light rain near and south of the Mass Pike looks to begin by 10-11 pm. This rain looks to change to light snow across areas near and south of the Mass Pike around or just after midnight tonight. For areas north of the Mass Pike, light snow looks to begin by about 11 pm-midnight or so. Light snow then looks to continue during the after midnight hours of tonight across most of Western and Central Mass. The exception will be across the Connecticut River Valley where light rain looks likely during the after midnight hours of tonight. During Saturday morning, light snow looks to continue until mid-morning when it’ll become much more intermittent. The exception to this will be across the Connecticut River Valley where light rain looks to continue during Saturday morning. During Saturday afternoon, all steady precipitation will be done by late morning Saturday, however, some scattered snow and rain showers are possible during the afternoon, especially across Central Mass. Snow amounts from tonight through Saturday morning look to range from nothing in the Connecticut River Valley to around 1 inch across much of Central Mass. Across the Berkshires, snow amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. One thing to note is that the Worcester Hills just west of I-190 could see up to 2 inches of snow accumulation tonight through Saturday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. High temperatures Saturday will be near 35 Degrees. Winds tonight will be East at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Saturday will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph. A Potential Very Significant Winter Storm Remains Possible From Monday Night Until Wednesday Morning: Weather forecast guidance continues to point to a strong storm system to impact Southern New England during the first half of next week. The question continues to be what sort of impact could this storm have on our area. The weather forecast guidance continues to have differing ideas on how this storm could unfold. Some of the latest guidance points to a storm system curling northward and cutting across Southern New England. This would lead to all of the heavy snow being limited to the Berkshires, while the rest of the region stays a cold rain. Other weather forecast guidance points to a storm system moving near or right over the Cape, which would lead to a heavy snowstorm for much of Western and Central Mass. The difference between these two extremes lie with the merging of two atmospheric disturbances over New England. An earlier merging of the pieces of energy would lead to a storm system to be pulled inland into Southern New England leading to much more rain than snow. A little later merging of the two pieces of energy would lead to the storm system tracking near or right over Nantucket and the Cape leading to the potential for a heavy snowstorm across much of the area. Another item to consider is the dynamics and energy this storm brings with it. A storm that pulls its energy and dynamics into our area would allow for the atmosphere to overcome an otherwise above freezing air mas causing it to cool leading to mostly all snow. If we lack these dynamics and energy, then we wouldn’t be able to really cool off much and thus we’d probably stay a little too mild to really snow, except for the Berkshires. So Here Are My Latest Thoughts On What May Occur With This Storm: Precipitation initially in the form of rain or a rain-snow mix looks to overspread first Western Mass by midday Monday and then begin across Central Mass by mid to late afternoon Monday. Depending on the track and dynamics of this storm, the rain or rain-snow mix looks to change to all snow during the overnight hours of Monday night. Snow then looks to continue throughout the day on Tuesday and all night Tuesday night. The intensity of the snow is still to be determined, based on the exact dynamics of this storm and how any heavy snow bands set up. All snow with this storm system looks to come to an end during Wednesday morning. If I were to make a “first call” in terms of possible total snow amounts, I’d go with amounts that range from 3 to 6 inches across the Connecticut River Valley to 5 to 10 inches across areas of Central Mass that are south of Route 2 to 8 to 14 inches across areas of Central Mass that are near and north of Route 2 to 10 to 20 inches of snow accumulation across the Berkshires. These forecast amounts are a starting point and will most definitely be refined much more in the coming days. It needs to be pointed that should we see a "perfect” merging of the two pieces of energy, then widespread amounts of 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow would become much more probable across much of the area and 30-plus inches of snow would be possible in the Berkshires. I’m not forecasting that much snow yet, but it is definitely a real possibility. One other thing that I wanted to mention is that this looks like it'll be a wet, heavy, pasty snow that’s not only going to be hard to plow and shovel, but it has the potential to stick to everything. This means that if this ends up being a significant to major snowfall, it could lead to downed tree limbs, power lines and power outage issues. It goes without saying that I continue to watch this storm extremely closely and will continue to send out frequent updates to you in the coming days.

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