For This Afternoon: Lots of sunshine is expected for this afternoon with temperatures steady between 20 and 25 Degrees. Tonight: An area of high pressure will build into the area tonight giving the area another cold night. Skies tonight will be clear with low temperatures near Zero. Thursday: That high pressure system will push to the east during Thursday. A sunny day is expected on Thursday with high temperatures near 25 Degrees. Thursday Night & Friday: An Arctic cold front will approach the area on Thursday night and then push through the region during Friday. Skies on Thursday night will be cloudy with low temperatures between 15 and 20 Degrees. Snow shower activity looks possible during the morning and early afternoon hours of Friday as that front moves through. Any snow accumulations will be between a dusting and a half an inch. High temperatures Friday will be near 35Degrees. A Significant, High Impact Winter Storm Looks Likely From Late Friday Night Through Saturday & Saturday Night: It still looks quite possible that a high impact winter storm will affect the region (particularly Central Mass) beginning later Friday night and continuing through Saturday and Saturday night. Here are the parts that I am confident about – It looks likely that an area of low pressure will take shape near the North and South Carolina coast on Friday night and strengthen rapidly on Saturday as it heads northeastward to a position near or east of Nantucket by Saturday evening. It looks very likely that this will be a very intense storm. The next part that I’m confident about is that it will snow from about midnight Friday night right through all day Saturday and into Saturday night across all of Western and Central Mass. The third part that I’m confident about is that there will be north winds that will gust up to 30 to 40 mph at times, especially during Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This will lead to considerable amounts of blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible at times. Here are the parts of this storm that I’m not confident about – The first thing is the exact track of the storm. Some of the weather forecast guidance (the GFS and Canadian models in particular) have trended a little further east with their forecast tracks of this storm leading to it to move east of Nantucket. In fact, the Canadian model is now so far east of Nantucket that it leaves extreme northwestern Mass with little or no snow from this storm. Other weather forecast guidance (European model and the NAM model) are showing a much closer track to Southern New England which leads to a crippling blizzard across all of Western and Central Mass. The second part of this storm that I’m not confident about is where exactly any heavy snow bands would set up. This actually ties closely into the first thing that I’m uncertain about (track of storm). A closer approach to Southern New England would lead to heavy snow bands setting up right across Western and Central Mass with a 1 to 2-plus foot storm likely. On the other hand, should we see a much further offshore track, it would lead to the heavy snow bands setting up near and inside of I-495 with light to moderate snow falling outside of I-495. Here Are My Thoughts: I think that there is a very real threat that Central Mass will see a high impact winter storm late Friday night through Saturday and Saturday night. Western Mass, on the other hand, may miss out on the really heavy accumulations as I’m not totally convinced of a track close enough to Southern New England to produce a heavy snowfall over Western Mass. At this point, I think that we’ll see snow develop across Western and Central Mass by midnight Friday night and then continue right through all day Saturday and most of, if not all of Saturday night. I still think that this will be a prolonged snowfall that lasts up to 30 consecutive hours. The worst part of the storm looks to be from about late Saturday morning through all of Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening. During this time, we may see heavy snow with snow rates of at least 1 to 2 inches per hour (especially over Central Mass), north winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph at times, considerable amounts of blowing and drifting snow and blizzard conditions at times. My First Snowfall Map On This Storm Is Attached To This Post. It looks like the snow will finally come to an end just before dawn Sunday morning. My Recommendation To Everyone Is to make preliminary preparations for a high impact winter storm that does have the very real potential to bring 1 to 2 feet of snow accumulation (especially across Central Mass), considerable amounts of blowing and drifting snow and blizzard conditions at times late Friday night through all day Saturday and all of Saturday night. These preparations can include canceling or rescheduling events or appointments, getting your snow removal equipment ready and maybe planning a small grocery shopping trip to get you by through the entire weekend. I continue to watch this storm extremely closely and will continue to have frequent updates as needed.
