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A Nor’Easter Will Bring Periods Of Rain & Gusty Winds From Wed-Fri Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of Today: An area of high pressure will briefly build into the area by this afternoon. Skies are expected to become partly sunny by this afternoon with high temperatures near 70 Degrees.

Tonight: That high pressure system will retreat to the north as two storm systems off of the southeastern US coast merge into one main ocean storm off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late tonight.

Skies are expected to start out partly cloudy this evening with skies becoming cloudy late tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be between 40 and 45 Degrees.

A Coastal Storm Will Bring Periods Of Rain & Gusty Winds To Western & Central Mass From Wednesday Through Friday: That ocean storm is expected to remain nearly stalled just off of the New England coastline from Wednesday through Friday before it lifts away to the east this weekend. At the same time, a strong high pressure ridge will be in place over southeastern Canada. This high pressure system will do two things – first, it will block our ocean storm from moving away and keep it stalled near the New England coast. Second thing the high pressure system will do is help to create a tight pressure gradient between the ocean storm to the south and the high pressure system to the north. This will lead to gusty east to northeast winds and periods of rain, which may be heavy at times, from Wednesday through Friday across Western and Central Mass. That’s the easy part of the forecast.

The difficult part of the forecast is how far north and west will the bands of heavy rain make it into southern New England during the middle and later parts of this week.

For Wednesday – Rain with the ocean storm will gradually push its way northward into southern New England. At this point, it looks like rain may make it as far north as the Mass Pike during Wednesday afternoon. With that said, there is uncertainty with this and it’s possible that it could end up raining Wednesday afternoon across all of Western and Central Mass. It’s also possible that the shield of rain may remain just south our our area throughout Wednesday.

Rain likely will continue across at least the lower Pioneer Valley and southern Worcester County during Wednesday night.

Northeast winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

For Thursday & Thursday Night – The intensity of the rainfall on Thursday and Thursday night will depend on how far west that ocean storm is able to move in relation to southern New England. If the storm system stays a little further offshore, then the impacts in terms of rainfall will be minimal for Western and Central Mass. On the other hand, if the storm system is able to push close in to the southern New England coast, then a wind-driven heavy rainfall would occur across a large part of Western and Central Mass on Thursday and especially Thursday night. Again, quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to this storm’s impact on our weather.

My thinking is that Thursday will see a steady rain across the lower Pioneer Valley and across southern Worcester County and intermittent periods of light rain across the upper Pioneer Valley and across northern Worcester County. Northeast winds are expected to gust up to 25 to 30 mph at times on Thursday.

On Thursday night, I think that rain, which will be heavy at times, is expected across all of Western and Central Mass. In addition, northeast winds will probably gust up to 25 mph at times throughout Thursday night.

For Friday – Yet another uncertain weather forecast, especially for Worcester County. There is the possibility that the bands of heavy rain may persist across central and eastern Mass throughout the day on Friday and this is something that will need to be monitored closely.

My thinking for Friday is that we will see periods of rain across Western Mass and a steady rain across Central Mass, which could be heavy at times.

In addition to the periods of rain and gusty winds, it will be cool and raw on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with temperatures only in the 50s during the day and in the 40s at night.

Bottom Line is that given the uncertainty with the ocean storm’s strength and track, there is likely to be additional changes and refinements to the weather forecast over the next few days. Keep checking back for updates.

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